Who will win the 2026 midterms?

The Bellwether Project estimates the chances of each party winning the U.S. Senate, House, and governorships in 2026. We combine the latest polls, the history of past elections, and the underlying lean of every state and district, then refresh the forecast every day.

SenateThe 35 seats on the ballot and who is favored to control the chamber.View the Senate forecast →HouseThe most competitive districts and the fight for a 218-seat majority.View the House forecast →GovernorsThe 36 governor races that will shape statehouses for years to come.View the Governor forecast →

What this is

Every race has its own story, but it is hard to see what the whole picture looks like. Our goal is simple: take the best available evidence and turn it into a clear, honest answer to one question — how likely is each side to win? A forecast cannot tell you what will happen, but it can tell you what is likely, and how confident anyone should be about it.

How the numbers come to pass

No math degree required. Here is the whole idea in four steps.

1
Gather the evidence. For every race we collect the recent polls, how the state or district has voted in the past, whether an incumbent is running, and how much money each side has raised.
2
Weigh it honestly. A fresh poll from a strong pollster counts for more than an old one. Polls paid for by a campaign get pulled back toward the middle, because they tend to flatter whoever paid for them.
3
Play the election out thousands of times. Nothing is certain, so instead of a single guess we run the whole election over and over, letting the results wander the way real elections do. A good night for one party tends to be a good night in similar places, so the races move together.
4
Count how often each side wins. If Democrats take the Senate in 60 out of every 100 run-throughs, we call that a 60% chance. That is where every percentage on this site comes from.

Want the technical version? The methodology explains exactly how the model works, and every race shows the polls and factors behind its number.